Impact of global warming on thermal performance of domestic buildings using probabilistic climate data

Abstract

The uncertainty in climate change predictions is an important factor in research into the impact of global warming on the thermal environment of buildings. This paper explores the impact of climate change on a domestic building in the UK, and assesses the measures that can be taken for better adaptation to such changes. Probabilistic climate change projections (UKCP09) are used to explore the uncertainties in predictions of annual heating energy, carbon emissions, and overheating risk due to climate change for a representative case study house. Global sensitivity analysis methods are implemented to identify key variables affecting these three performance indicators. Simulations indicate that the uncertainties in overheating risk will become significantly larger over time than uncertainties in heating energy and carbon emissions. For this case study building, the room heating set-point temperature has more influence on heating energy use compared to continuous/intermittent heating mode. The energy use of appliances is the most influential source for carbon emissions in this house.