Abstract
Geopolitical risks (GPR) expose firms to uncertainties that can affect business operations, corporate decisions, and outcomes. We hypothesize that higher GPR is associated with a lower firm's target debt ratio (TDR) because a higher GPR increases the probability of default. Consistent with our hypothesis, we find a significant negative association between GPR and TDR. Additionally, we observe a significant negative association between GPR and distance-to-default score, supporting our view that higher GPR is linked to a greater probability of default. Further heterogeneity analysis indicates that high-tech firms are more vulnerable to the adverse impact of GPR than low-tech firms.
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