Impact of Future Land Use Change on Large Carnivores Connectivity in the Polish Carpathians

Dominik Kaim,Jacek Kozak,Bronwyn Price,Marcin Szwagrzyk,Elżbieta Ziółkowska

doi:10.3390/land8010008

Dominik Kaim, Jacek Kozak + Show 3 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/land8010008

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Abstract

The Polish Carpathians, like many mountain areas in Europe, are currently facing dynamic land use changes that will shape their future landscapes. As there are many different possible scenarios of potential change, we compared three different land use scenarios up until the year 2060 and assessed their impact on the potential habitat connectivity of two large carnivores—wolf (Canis lupus) and lynx (Lynx lynx). We first analysed the main directions of change within and outside the pan-European wildlife corridor located in the western part of the Polish Carpathians. Then we calculated and compared least-cost paths among randomly selected points for each land use scenario separately. Our results showed that the main direction of change—forest cover increase—may positively influence habitat connectivity for both wolf and lynx. However, due to the future spread of settlements, this positive impact might be locally limited. Therefore, to realise the potential conservation opportunities resulting from on-going land use changes, adequate orientation of spatial planning towards habitat connectivity is crucial.

Highlights

IntroductionLandscapes across the globe are increasingly subject to alteration by humans, with the associated land use and land cover changes having considerable consequences for biodiversity [1,2,3]
Landscapes across the globe are increasingly subject to alteration by humans, with the associated land use and land cover changes having considerable consequences for biodiversity [1,2,3].In human-dominated landscapes, survival of faunal species can depend on habitat connectivity [4], which, for example, facilitates gene flow among subpopulations and enhances resilience to climate change and other disturbances [5]
We focused on the evaluation of potential habitat connectivity for large mammals, using wolf (Canis lupus) and lynx (Lynx lynx) as model species, where potential habitat connectivity combines information lupus) and lynx (Lynx lynx) as model species, where potential habitat connectivity combines on landscape structure with limited information on species’ dispersal abilities, as defined by Calabrese information on landscape structure with limited information on species’ dispersal abilities, as defined and Fagan [37]

Summary

Introduction

Landscapes across the globe are increasingly subject to alteration by humans, with the associated land use and land cover changes having considerable consequences for biodiversity [1,2,3]. In human-dominated landscapes, survival of faunal species can depend on habitat connectivity [4], which, for example, facilitates gene flow among subpopulations and enhances resilience to climate change and other disturbances [5]. As the existence of large mammals in human-dominated landscapes depends on wildlife corridors, they are commonly used as a conservation strategy to counter the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation for those species [8]. Land use change is one of the main drivers of biodiversity decline worldwide [9]. Analyses of land use change dynamics conducted at the global scale indicate the continuation of current trends of habitat

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