Impact of financial contagion on developed and emerging economies in the wake of the covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Abstract

The world economy has been experiencing two double difficulties, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the war between Russia and Ukraine. The Russia-Ukraine war, accompanied by strong Western economic sanctions as well as Russia’s reactions, has had a comprehensive and profound negative impact on the world economy. With the openness of the economy as high as it is today, the influence between different economies is understandable. The research results focus on analyzing the financial contagion between mature and emerging markets in the post-COVID pandemic and the war of Russia and Ukraine. The study collected random stock index data from 5 developed and 5 developing countries from 2015 to the end of January 2023. The study uses the GARCH(1,1)-M model to find the financial spread between selected countries. Research results show that developed countries have a larger financial spread than developing countries, especially during the post-COVID pandemic and the war of Russia - Ukraine period.