Impact of expanding hepatitis B treatment guidelines: A modelling and economic impact analysis.

Abstract

Antiviral treatment in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) may decrease the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and death. However, only 2.2% of CHB patients receive antiviral treatment globally. The complexity and strictness of the current clinical practice guidelines may limit expanding the treatment coverage for CHB. To examine the impact of expanding treatment criteria on future disease burden in Korea, a hepatitis B virus (HBV) endemic country with high diagnostic rates. Dynamic country-level data were used to estimate the HCC incidence, overall mortality and economic impact of three incremental scenarios compared to the base case in Korea through 2035. In 2020, 1,409,000 CHB cases were estimated, with the majority born before 1995. All scenarios assumed treating 70% of eligible individuals. The first scenario removed viral load restrictions in cirrhotic patients, which would avert 13,000 cases of HCC and save 11,800 lives. The second scenario, lowering the alanine aminotransferase (ALT) level restriction to the upper limit of the normal in non-cirrhotic patients, would avert 26,700 cases of HCC and save 23,300 lives. The last scenario removed the restriction by ALT and HBeAg in treating non-cirrhotic individuals with a viral load of ≥2000 IU/ml, which would avert 43,300 cases of HCC and save 37,000 lives. All scenarios were highly cost-effective. Simplifying and expanding treatment eligibility for CHB would save many lives and be highly cost-effective when combined with high diagnostic rates. These dynamic country-level data may provide new insights for their global application.