Impact of Exchange Rate on Trade Balance of India: Evidence from Threshold Cointegration with Asymmetric Error Correction Approach

Abstract

In this research, we investigate the dynamic relationship between the trade balance and exchange rate in the case of India using threshold cointegration and an asymmetric error-correction model. Empirical results validate that the long-run dynamic relationship between the trade balance and exchange rates is asymmetric. In the short run, the trade balance responds only due to positive deviations in the exchange rate. In contrast, in the exchange rate model, the exchange rate reacts only due to negative deviations in the trade balance. In addition, the results exhibit that the adjustment following variation in the exchange rate seems higher than the adjustment in the trade balance in the short run. Besides, the results indicate that the speed of adjustment due to the positive and negative shocks differs in the trade balance and the exchange rate models. Further, the uni- directional Granger causality result suggests that the trade balance substantially affects the exchange rate. However, the Granger causality effect of the exchange rate on the trade balance seems minimal. Finally, our results validate the impact of momentum equilibrium adjustment path asymmetric effects between the trade balance and exchange rate, indicating that the adjustment path is asymmetric in the long run. Therefore, policy planners in India should consider the asymmetric adjustment between these two drivers to overcome trade balance discrepancies in the short and long run. JEL Codes: F40, F41, C22, C32, C12