Impact of European emission control strategies on urban and local air quality

Abstract

Abstract The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of specific emission control measures on the air quality of urban centres and local area hotspots. In order to achieve this, a sequence of regional, urban and local scale models was applied to assess the impact of European emission control strategies on urban and local scale air quality. First, vehicle fleet and activity data were estimated using appropriate models. The results of these models were used as input to the COPERT model in order to estimate vehicle emissions (NO2 and PM10) at country level up to the year 2030. Vehicle emissions were calculated according to two different scenarios: A baseline scenario, CLE (Current LEgislation) and an optimistic alternative, MFR (Maximum Feasible Reductions). Urban background and traffic hotspot concentrations of air pollutants were then calculated using the OFIS (Ozone FIne Structure) and OSPM (Operational Street Pollution Model) models respectively for 20 cities in Europe and for particular types of streets. Air quality was found to improve in 2030 compared to the reference year 2000, in line with the stricter NOx and PM vehicle emission limits imposed. The NO2 street increments for narrow canyons estimated for the reference year were found to be in the range of 16–53 μg m−3, depending on the city considered. These were reduced to 14–36 μg m−3 in the CLE scenario and 7–24 μg m−3 in the MFR scenario. The corresponding range for PM10 was estimated to be 5–15 μg m−3 for the reference year and was reduced to 2–8 μg m−3 and 0.2–2.4 μg m−3 for the CLE and the MFR scenarios respectively.