Impact of EU sanctions on trade in engineering products between Russia and Central-Eastern European countries: An applied econometric approach

Abstract

Aim. To assess the impact of Western European sanctions on trade cooperation between Russia and Central-Eastern European (CEE) countries in the machine-building sector.Objectives. Statistical analysis of the dynamics of Russia’s trade relations with CEE countries in the field of mechanical engineering under current sanctions conditions; construction of an econometric model for regression analysis of the impact of Western European sanctions on trade in mechanical engineering products; identification of key trends and problems in trade and economic cooperation between Russia and the CEE region in the mechanical engineering sector in 2021–2023.Methods. The authors used such research methods as statistical and econometric analysis, syntax, description, graphical modeling.Results. The results obtained in the course of econometric analysis indicate that the impact of Western European sanctions on the main indicators of trade in engineering industry products between the Russian Federation (RF) and CEE countries was ambiguous. European Union (EU, EU) sanctions had a greater impact on CEE countries’ export flows than on RF exports to the region.Conclusions. The current sanctions conditions have determined an unfavorable medium-term trend in trade relations in the mechanical engineering sector between Russia and the CEE region. The trade and economic indicators analyzed in this article are the main determinants of econometric analysis that affect the interaction between Russia and CEE countries in the machine-building sector. During the studied period of 2021-2022 the volume of mutual investments showed a negative effect, industrial production had a positive impact on trade in engineering products.