Impact of errors in short wave radiation and its attenuation on modeled upper ocean heat content

Abstract

Photosynthetically available radiation (PAR) and its attenuation with the depth represent a forcing (source) term in the governing equation for the temperature in the oceanic dynamical models. PAR usually comes from the atmospheric model predictions, whereas PAR’s attenuation schemes are internally prescribed (estimated) inside the oceanic dynamical model. We perform sensitivity analyses to investigate the impact that errors in model surface PAR and vertical attenuation of PAR have on the upper ocean model heat content. In the Monterey Bay area, we show that with a decrease in water clarity, the relative error in surface PAR introduces a larger error in the modeled upper 25 m ocean heat content than the same magnitude relative error in the attenuation coefficient. For Jerlov’s type “IA” water (attenuation coefficient is 0.049 m−1), the relative error in surface PAR introduces an error twice as large into the model heat content as the same magnitude relative error in the attenuation coefficient. For the more turbid water Jerlov’s type “III” (attenuation coefficient is 0.127 m−1), the relative error in surface PAR introduces error seven times as large into the model heat content than the same magnitude relative error in the attenuation coefficient. We present how the upper ocean heat content sensitivities to errors in PAR and its attenuation change in space and time. While the sensitivities to the errors in surface PAR are all positive, sensitivities to the errors in attenuation coefficient have positive and negative values, depending on location. They are positive in shallower water for locations on the shelf in the northern part of the bay and negative in deeper offshore waters. Sensitivities derived provide a capability to understand and control the impact of errors in PAR and its attenuation on the upper ocean model heat content predictions.