Impact of energy consumption and human activities on carbon emissions in Pakistan: application of STIRPAT model.

Abstract

This study examines the impact of fossil fuel consumption, nonrenewable energy consumption, population, affluence, and poverty on carbon emissions in Pakistan by using a time series data from 1972 to 2014. The study uses a flexible ecological framework known as the STIRPAT model. The Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) Model and Error Correction Model (ECM) are used to estimate the robust results. The results show that consumption of fossil fuels, population growth, improvement in affluence level, and urbanization are contributing factors to high carbon emissions in Pakistan. The results also highlight that poverty alleviation and carbon emissions have opposite trends, this shows that the efforts to reduce poverty are stimulating the consumption of low-cost energy sources such as fossil fuels, and contributing to carbon emissions. However, results indicate that an increase in the share of renewable energy in total energy use and consumption of hydroelectric energy has the potential to reduce carbon emissions in Pakistan. The results highlight that there is a need to promote the use of renewable and hydroelectric energy. At domestic level, this will assist to meet the energy demand of the growing population and also prove helpful to reduce carbon emissions. Thus, the study recommends that a transition from fossil fuel energy to renewable and hydroelectric energy could prove an effective strategy to improve the affluence level, to alleviate poverty and effective to reduce carbon emissions in Pakistan.