Impact of emerging sustainable aircraft technologies on the existing operating ecosystem

Abstract

Emerging sustainable aircraft technologies—such as sustainable aviation fuel, electric and hydrogen propulsion—are expected to play a major role in the decarbonization of the aviation sector. Nevertheless, at present, the exact impact that their deployment will have on the existing operating ecosystem is not yet clear. To shed some light on this area, this paper adopts an exploratory research approach based on the collection of impact assessments through semi-structured interviews with domain experts. In particular, we involve 22 individuals affiliated with the most important stakeholders in the European and American aviation industries, including airlines, airports, aircraft and engine manufacturers, fuel producers, government agencies, universities and research centers, and aviation industry experts. Our results, that are presented in the form of spider charts and tables, provide an exhaustive and comprehensive picture of all the impacts that the examined technologies are expected to have on airline operations, airport operations, and airside airport infrastructure. What emerges is that SAF, even if used in high percentages, is anticipated to have a fairly marginal effect. In contrast, electric and hydrogen aircraft propulsion are foreseen to be much more disruptive, having a similar medium-to-high impact on many operations and parts of the airport infrastructure. In light of this finding, we propose the development of multi-technology airport infrastructural assets as a solution not only for the possible onset of lock-in effects but also for the chicken and egg dilemma currently affecting the sector.