Impact of electric vehicles and solar PV on future generation portfolio investment

Abstract

This study assesses the impact of electric vehicle (EV) uptake and large-scale photovoltaic (PV) investment on the economics of future electricity-generation portfolios. A Monte-Carlo based portfolio modeling tool was used to assess the expected overall industry cost, associated cost uncertainty, and CO2 emissions of future generation portfolios, where both EVs and PV generation have achieved major deployment. The Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) was used as a case study under uncertain future fuel and carbon prices, electricity demand, and plant capital costs. Two EV charging scenarios were considered: 1) unmanaged charging which commences immediately as the EVs arrive at suitable charging infrastructure and 2) managed charging where EV charging loads are managed so that they better align with PV output. Results show that there are potentially valuable synergies between PV generation and EV charging demand in minimizing future electricity industry costs, cost uncertainties, and emissions, particularly when EV charging loads can be managed. The value of PV generation and managed EV charging is greater for higher EV fleet size and moderate carbon prices.