Abstract
Monsoon fluctuation due to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a reflective influence on rice production, which is the major food grain crop in India. The impact of ENSO on the spatial variability of summer monsoon rainfall was analyzed from 1950 to 2018 and that on Kharif rice production for the period of 1998–2016. It was clear from the analysis that ENSO had varied influences on rainfall and rice production over different rice-growing districts of Karnataka. During El Niño (strong, moderate, and weak) years, southwest (S-W) monsoon rainfall was below normal in all the districts of Karnataka, wherein the highest negative deviation from normal was recorded in the Mysore district (−21.43%). In contrast, the rice production was higher in 15 districts out of 25, and the deviation from normal ranged from −39.73% in Bidar to 42.11% in Gulbarga district. During the La Niña (strong, moderate, and weak) years, S-W monsoon rainfall was above normal in 12 districts in which Bidar and Bengaluru urban districts have shown the highest positive deviation (19.93 and 19.82%, respectively). However, except for Udupi, Dakshina Kannada, Bidar, Davanagere, and Hassan districts, all the other major rice-growing districts have shown a positive deviation in rice production with the highest deviation of 62.39% in Tumkur district. Additionally, correlation coefficient values indicated the influence of southwest monsoon rainfall on Kharif rice production during El Niño years with a major contribution from September month rainfall. This kind of ENSO impact analysis on spatial rice production could be useful for formulating the farm-level site-specific management, planning, and policy decisions during ENSO periods in advance.
Highlights
Despite rapid industrialization in recent decades, India is primarily an agrarian country with a contribution of 17.8% to GDP [1]
The adverse effects of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are greater on rice crops, as it contributed a 48% decline in the food grain production during El Niño years and 35% increased production during La Niña years [4]
The average S-W monsoon rainfall during strong El Niño years was less than the normal rainfall in all the districts of Karnataka, with an anomaly range of −5.46% in Gadag to −19.89% in Kolar
Summary
Despite rapid industrialization in recent decades, India is primarily an agrarian country with a contribution of 17.8% to GDP [1]. Rice is one of the major food crops in India with a contribution of more than 40% to total food grain production and is grown across the country depending on the occurrence of the rainfall. Important rice-producing states in India are West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Assam, and Kerala, which together hold 72% rice-growing area and contribute nearly 95% to the total rice production It is generally grown during all the three seasons, viz., Kharif, rabi, and summer, in India with 84% rice production from Kharif -sown crop alone [2]. Occurrences of droughts and floods associated with the inter-annual variability of Indian rainfall affect in the agriculture, water resources, and economic sectors This variability is affected mainly under the influence of ENSO events. NeutrSatlryoenagrsLa Niña1950, 1956, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1966, 1967,11997738,, 11998705,,1199881,81, 918959,81,91899,9199,9200, 01799, 22,0119093, 1996, 2001, 2003, 2012, 2013
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
