Impact of El Niño on Oil Palm Yield in Malaysia

Jen Feng Khor,Eugene Zhen Xiang Soo,Wei Lun Tan,Zulkifli Yusop,Joan Lucille Ling,Lloyd Ling

doi:10.3390/agronomy11112189

Jen Feng Khor, Eugene Zhen Xiang Soo + Show 4 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy11112189

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Abstract

Oil palm crop yield is sensitive to heat and drought. Therefore, El Niño events affect oil palm production, resulting in price fluctuations of crude palm oil due to global supply shortage. This study developed a new Fresh Fruit Bunch Index (FFBI) model based on the monthly oil palm fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield data, which correlates directly with the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) to model the impact of past El Niño events in Malaysia in terms of production and economic losses. FFBI is derived from Malaysian monthly FFB yields from January 1986 to July 2021 in the same way ONI is derived from monthly sea surface temperatures (SST). With FFBI model, the Malaysian oil palm yields are better correlated with ONI and have higher predictive ability. The descriptive and inferential statistical assessments show that the newly proposed FFBI time series model (adjusted R-squared = 0.9312 and residual median = 0.0051) has a better monthly oil palm yield predictive ability than the FFB model (adjusted R-squared = 0.8274 and residual median = 0.0077). The FFBI model also revealed an oil palm under yield concern of the Malaysian oil palm industry in the next thirty-month forecasted period from July 2021 to December 2023.

Highlights

Published: 29 October 2021The edible oil and fat sectors consist of 17 varieties of oils and fats that can be categorized into vegetable oils and animal fats
Based on the statistical assessment of the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) and Fresh Fruit Bunch Index (FFBI) time series model (Table 6), the FFBI model (Appendix F) has an adjusted R-squared of 0.9312, which is significantly higher than the FFB model (Appendix E) with adjusted R-squared of 0.8274 only
The FFBI model of this study suggests that the oil palm production could be affected after 2 to 16 months of the occurrence of El Niño events in Malaysia

Summary

Introduction

The edible oil and fat sectors consist of 17 varieties of oils and fats that can be categorized into vegetable oils and animal fats. Global edible oil and fat output increased by around 176% in the span of 26 years, from 84.6 million tons (Mt) in. Palm oil made a significant 40% rise in demand, which was an increase of about 2.3 Mt per year in the whole edible oil and fat sectors within the aforementioned period [1]. The said increase was a consequence of the growing demand for palm oil consumption within the food sector, household consumable oil, the cosmetics sector and biodiesel fuel. Vegetable oils are regarded to be an effective replacement for fossil fuels that can lead to a renewable energy source [2]

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