Impact of economic crises on long-term regional development in Poland

Abstract

The existing research indicates large differences in the degree of socio-economic development at the local and regional level in Poland. The study presented in this paper identifies the trends characterising the long-term economic development of regions in Poland. The research sample consisted of all types of gminas (lowest administrative units in Poland), i.e. rural, urban-rural, urban, and cities with powiat (county) status. A classification method based on the pattern and anti-pattern of development in a dynamic perspective was applied in the analyses, which made it possible to compare the values of the synthetic measure of development over time. The data used in the study came from the Local Data Bank of Statistics Poland and covered the years 2006–2021. The aim of the research was to determine the longterm economic path of development of the different types of gminas by voivodship (highestlevel administrative unit in Poland). The novelty of the study is not only the fact that it covers a long research period, but, more importantly, that it allows the comparison of the effects of two crises (of a different nature) on the development of gminas. The first of them resulted from the collapse of the US real estate market in 2007, and the second was caused by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. A strong differentiation in terms of the level of development of the particular types of gminas was observed across voivodships, as well as a strong similarity of their development paths throughout the studied period. The results based on the dynamic measure of development also indicate that rural and urban-rural gminas were more resilient to crises than urban gminas and cities with powiat status. It also became evident that gminas were significantly more resistant to the negative effects of the pandemic than to the financial crisis.