Impact of distributed PV on peak demand in the Australian national electricity market

Abstract

This paper presents a study evaluating the impact of distributed PV systems on peak demand in the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM). Thirty minute distributed PV generation is modelled by upscaling the logged outputs of some three thousand PV systems distributed across the NEM to reflect total installed NEM PV capacity year by year. This is compared against historical thirty-minute demand data for each NEM region, over the years 2013–15. The impact of distributed PV on both regional peak reduction as well as the timing of the peak is assessed. The study findings indicate that distributed PV has reduced peak demand in all but one region of the NEM over the past three years while also delaying the time that these peaks occur. As PV penetration level increases, the ability to impact peak demand is decreased as the highest peaks are shifted outside of daylight hours. However, there is scope for PV to reduce peak demand in most NEM regions, even up to significant PV penetration levels. Australia has the highest penetration of residential PV generation in the world and these findings highlight the value of this PV in reducing overall electricity industry peak demand.