Abstract
During the recent ten years, the estimation of future uranium demands has changed greatly, and SFR competitiveness is called again into question. In this context, a planning of plutonium multi-recycling in PWRs for the near-term decades has been announced in France, which replaces the objective of future SFR deployment. However, the mid-term policy concerning the future reactor system is always uncertain, and the demand of SFR deployment may re-increase significantly. This study looks into this possibility and analyzes the consequences of such back and forth between different plutonium multi-recycling strategies. The newly developed methodology of robustness assessment is applied to the problem, considering the objective disruptions to take into account the deep uncertainties about nuclear future. Two prior trajectories of plutonium multi-recycling, one involving the use of MIX fuel in PWRs and the other considering the SFR deployment, are analyzed first. The disruption of the strategy using MIX is then supposed under the re-consideration of future SFR deployment. To quantify the impacts of using MIX on deployment timing, we investigate the earliest time for which the fleet substitution with SFRs can be completed. To supplement, the prior strategy of SFR deployment is also disrupted under the context of halting the start of new SFR. The plutonium multi-recycling in PWRs, regarded as adaptive strategy, aims to minimize the idle plutonium. In these robustness assessments, numerous outputs of interests are analyzed, in order to provide a comprehensive evaluation of consequences of prior strategies, regarding the uncertain disruptions and optimal readjustments.
Highlights
Based on the Act of radioactive materials and wastes management published in 2006 [1] and the specific expertise, French nuclear actors launched the Advanced Sodium Technological Reactor for Industrial Demonstration (ASTRID) project, regarded as the first phase for the future deployment of Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor (SFR) [2]
In France, the abortion of the ASTRID project was declared, after a series of project modifications as well as several project- and organization-related difficulties [12]. It is clarified in the governmental report [13] that the SFR deployment is not considered for the near-term French fleet, even though necessary researches should be carried on to keep the acquisition of relevant knowledge and techniques; instead, the plutonium multi-recycling in Pressurized Water Reactors (PWRs) is considered for the spent fuel management strategies
Learning from previous studies, there are mainly two technological orientations for the French nuclear future: the plutonium multi-recycling in PWRs and in SFRs
Summary
Based on the Act of radioactive materials and wastes management published in 2006 [1] and the specific expertise, French nuclear actors launched the Advanced Sodium Technological Reactor for Industrial Demonstration (ASTRID) project, regarded as the first phase for the future deployment of Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor (SFR) [2]. In France, the abortion of the ASTRID project was declared, after a series of project modifications as well as several project- and organization-related difficulties [12] It is clarified in the governmental report [13] that the SFR deployment is not considered for the near-term French fleet, even though necessary researches should be carried on to keep the acquisition of relevant knowledge and techniques; instead, the plutonium multi-recycling in Pressurized Water Reactors (PWRs) is considered for the spent fuel management strategies. In terms of abrupt changes, a systematic analysis on the disruption of installed capacity has been carried out, developing a dedicated methodology to identifying resistant and resilient strategies in regard to the respect of industrial constraints [17] Different from these previous studies, this work aims to investigate the deep uncertainty of objectives, and its impact on the deployment of different technologies for the near term before any disruption.
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