Impact of different nucleic acid testing scenarios on COVID-19 transmission

Abstract

In the past three years, waves of COVID-19 infections have emerged one after another, and may enter a small-scale wave-like recurrent epidemic pattern in the future. When COVID-19 infections occur in small-scale, how to efficiently detect and prevent the disease has become the main problem. In this study, based on the characteristics of the Omicron variant and China's pandemic prevention and control strategies, the following three nucleic acid testing scenarios were simulated: scenario 1 (baseline scenario) included conducting nucleic acid testing at administrative region; scenario 2 included conducting nucleic acid testing at the community; and scenario 3 included conducting nucleic acid testing at the health facility closest to households. The model calibration showed that the baseline scenario was consistent with the actual transmission scenario of the disease. The simulation results revealed that compared with scenario 1, the cumulative cases in scenarios 2 and 3 were reduced by 9.52 % and 46.83 %, respectively. Compared with scenario 2, the cumulative cases in scenario 3 were reduced by 41.23 %. Thus, adopting nucleic acid testing measures at the household level can effectively limit the spread of COVID-19 and should be given a priority when local emergency occurs in the future.