Impact of crisis events on Chinese outbound tourist flow: A framework for post-events growth

Abstract

International tourism is highly susceptible to external political, economic and environmental crisis events. This paper consists of two studies. Study 1 uses time-series monthly data and the TRAMO/SEATS model to detect and estimate the impact of a range of political, economic and environmental crisis events on the tourist flows from China to Japan and South Korea during the period of 2005–2017. Study 2 uses in-depth interviews to investigate the factors intensifying or alleviating the negative impacts of these crisis events on tourism as well as factors contributing to post-events tourism recovery and growth. Results identify the varying levels of impacts caused by event type and other causative factors for negative impacts. The paper discusses the influence of these factors to provide references to relevant stakeholders for strategic planning, policy making and recovery and growth scheme development.