Abstract
Lockdowns implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic were utilized to evaluate the associations between “social distancing policies” (SDPs), traffic congestion, mobility, and NO2 air pollution. Spatiotemporal linear mixed models were used on city-day data from 22 US cities to estimate the associations between SDPs, traffic congestion and mobility. Autoregressive integrated moving average models with Fourier terms were then used on historical data to forecast expected 2020 NO2. Time series models were subsequently employed to measure how much reductions in local traffic congestion were associated with lower-than-forecasted 2020 NO2. Finally, the equity of NO2 pollution was assessed with community-level sociodemographics. When cities’ most stringent SDPs were implemented, they observed a 23.47 (95% CI: 18.82–28.12) percent reduction in average daily congestion and a 13.48 (95% CI: 10.36–16.59) percent decrease in average daily mobility compared to unrestricted days. For each standard deviation (8.38%) reduction in local daily congestion, average daily NO2 decreased by 1.37 (95% CI: 1.24–1.51) parts per billion relative to its forecasted value. Citizenship, education, and race were associated with elevated absolute NO2 pollution levels but were not detectibly associated with reductions in 2020 NO2 relative to its forecasted value. This illustrates the immediate behavioral and environmental impacts of local SDPs during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Highlights
Amidst the devastation of the COVID-19 pandemic, we harnessed the implementation of lockdowns and “social distancing policies” (SDPs) to study their impact on traffic congestion, mobility, nitrogen dioxide (NO2 ) air pollution, and community-level demographics.Vehicle emissions are a primary source of exposure to NO2, which is associated with adverse health and environmental impacts [1]
We found that lockdown policies in cities across the US led to substantial, heterogeneous reductions in traffic and mobility, which were followed by considerable reductions in air pollution
When minor SDPs were implemented, cities observed nearly a 20 percent reduction in average daily congestion and a 6 percent reduction in average daily mobility compared to unrestricted days
Summary
Amidst the devastation of the COVID-19 pandemic, we harnessed the implementation of lockdowns and “social distancing policies” (SDPs) to study their impact on traffic congestion, mobility, nitrogen dioxide (NO2 ) air pollution, and community-level demographics.Vehicle emissions are a primary source of exposure to NO2 , which is associated with adverse health and environmental impacts [1]. Amidst the devastation of the COVID-19 pandemic, we harnessed the implementation of lockdowns and “social distancing policies” (SDPs) to study their impact on traffic congestion, mobility, nitrogen dioxide (NO2 ) air pollution, and community-level demographics. Examining the extent to which SDPs impact mobility is important for evaluating the spread of COVID-19. This idea drove our interest in developing models to measure differential lockdown policy effects on mobility. Given the ongoing climate crisis, we were motivated to track and estimate the effects of pandemic-related behavior change on air quality using novel statistical methods. Our primary aims were to determine whether there is a Sustainability 2021, 13, 7275.
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