Impact of Covid-19 on the dynamics of MTPL insurance premiums and claims paid in Latvia

Abstract

COVID-19 has devastated societies and economies around the world, leaving no sector untouched. The unprecedented crisis caused by Covid-19 led to unexpected changes in public behaviour: the restrictions imposed, especially during the pandemic outbreaks in March-April and November-December 2020, left a significant impact on traffic volumes. By the spring of 2020, more than half of the world’s population had been isolated with tough containment measures. Opportunities to work from home reduced the need to use private cars and, consequently, the demand for motor third party liability (MTPL) insurance. In order to understand the significance of the impact of the pandemic on MTPL insurance premiums and claims, the authors studied the impact of macroeconomic factors on the insurance market in Latvia in the period from 2005-2020. Using regression analysis methods, the evidence was obtained that changes in the macroeconomic situation significantly affect one of the main non-life insurance segments MTPL insurance. A set of indicators, that most significantly affect revenues and expenses in this business segment of insurance companies, was determined. The findings provide useful recommendations for insurance companies to reduce business risks and promote sustainable development. The results of the study are important for insurance-related econometric analysis, investment decisions, forecasting, and policy development.