Impact of COVID-19 infection on life expectancy, premature mortality, and DALY in Maharashtra, India

Guru Vasishtha,Manisha Dubey,Umakanta Sahoo,Udaya S. Mishra,Sanjay K. Mohanty

doi:10.1186/s12879-021-06026-6

Abstract

BackgroundThe COVID-19 infections and deaths have largely been uneven within and between countries. With 17% of the world’s population, India has so far had 13% of global COVID-19 infections and 8.5% of deaths. Maharashtra accounting for 9% of India’s population, is the worst affected state, with 19% of infections and 33% of total deaths in the country until 23rd December 2020. Though a number of studies have examined the vulnerability to and spread of COVID-19 and its effect on mortality, no attempt has been made to understand its impact on mortality in the states of India.MethodUsing data from multiple sources and under the assumption that COVID-19 deaths are additional deaths in the population, this paper examined the impact of the disease on premature mortality, loss of life expectancy, years of potential life lost (YPLL), and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) in Maharashtra. Descriptive statistics, a set of abridged life tables, YPLL, and DALY were used in the analysis. Estimates of mortality indices were compared pre- and during COVID-19.ResultCOVID-19 attributable deaths account for 5.3% of total deaths in the state and have reduced the life expectancy at birth by 0.8 years, from 73.2 years in the pre-COVID-19 period to 72.4 years by the end of 2020. If COVID-19 attributable deaths increase to 10% of total deaths, life expectancy at birth will likely reduce by 1.4 years. The probability of death in 20–64 years of age (the prime working-age group) has increased from 0.15 to 0.16 due to COVID-19. There has been 1.06 million additional loss of years (YPLL) in the state, and DALY due to COVID-19 has been estimated to be 6 per thousand.ConclusionCOVID-19 has increased premature mortality, YPLL, and DALY and has reduced life expectancy at every age in Maharashtra.

Highlights

In a short span of 1 year, COVID-19 has emerged as the largest-ever health crisis of the twenty-first century
If COVID-19 attributable deaths increase to 10% of total deaths, life expectancy at birth will likely reduce by 1.4 years
As the COVID-19 infection continues to spread, an increasing number of studies have become available on the extent of infection, the associated risk factors, and the crude fatality ratio (CFR) with and without time lag, projecting deaths and estimating the loss of life expectancy, premature mortality, and years of potential life lost (YPLL) across countries [3,4,5,6,7,8,9]

Summary

Result

Since the onset of the pandemic, COVID-19 has infected more than 1.8 million people, of whom 48,746 had died in Maharashtra until 20th December 2020. COVID-19 attributable deaths amount to 5.3% of the total deaths. These additional deaths could have been prevented in the absence of COVID-19.

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Discussion and conclusion