Impact of COVID-19 quarantine measures on electricity consumption in the central-southern zone of Chile: A quasi-experimental study

Abstract

This paper investigates the causal effect of COVID-19 quarantine measures on the electricity consumption of different types of regulated customers. In particular, the average energy consumption of a group of customers in Chile is examined, exploiting the weekly variations in the application of the stages of the Step by Step Plan as a natural experiment. Step by Step Plan was the Chile COVID containment strategy, which involved implementing partial lockdowns based on the COVID incidence in the municipalities, and adjusted on a weekly basis. An econometric model is specified, and estimated using the technique Difference-in-Difference-in-Difference (DDD) to quantify the causal impact of these measures. After applying the model, it is found that the quarantine measures have had a negative effect on the trend weekly consumption of customers located in municipalities where some of the phases of the Plan have been applied. This effect is significantly different depending on each stage of the plan analysis, and statistically significant. It is also observed that, on average, the savings for a representative customer in the sample range from $8 to $6.15 for some municipalities, and the sample costs range from $0.02 to $0.26 for others, depending on the municipality analyzed. The results can be expressed in a total of 2.95 tons less CO2 emitted on a monthly basis. This shows a great impact in terms of sustainability and planning of energy demand and supply.