Impact of combined systolic blood pressure and body mass index on the risk of new-onset atrial fibrillation

Abstract

To observe the impact of combined systolic blood pressure and body mass index (BMI) on the risk of new-onset atrial fibrillation. The participants who participated the health examination between July 2006 and October 2007 at Kailuan medical group and had no history of atrial fibrillation were selected as the observation cohort.The second, the third and the fourth health examination were conducted between July 2008 and October 2009, July 2010 and October 2011, July 2012 and October 2013, respectively.The participants were stratified by 3 systolic blood pressure levels (≤120, 120-140, ≥140 mmHg (1 mmHg=0.133 kPa))×3 BMI levels (≤24, 24-28, ≥28 kg/m(2)) at baseline.The combined effect of systolic blood pressure and BMI on the risk of new-onset atrial fibrillation was analyzed by multiple Cox regression analysis. A total of 99 206 participants were recruited and 88 715 participants were included in the final analysis after excluding participants who had new-onset valvular atrial fibrillation or lost to follow-up.A total of 265 participants developed atrial fibrillation during the 5.6 years follow-up.The incidence of atrial fibrillation increased with the BMI and systolic blood pressure, the incidence of new onset of atrial fibrillation was significantly higher in the group with systolic blood pressure≥140 mmHg and BMI≥28 kg/m(2) than the group with systolic blood pressure≤120 mmHg and BMI≤24 kg/m(2)(1.15/1 000 person-year vs. 0.25/1 000 person-year). Multiple Cox regression analysis showed that participants in the group with systolic blood pressure≥140 mmHg and BMI≥28 kg/m(2) carried 2.08 (95%CI 1.18-3.67) times higher risk for atrial fibrillation than the group with systolic blood pressure≤120 mmHg and BMI≤24 kg/m(2) after adjustment for age, gender and other confounders at baseline. Participants with systolic blood pressure≥140 mmHg and BMI≥28 kg/m(2) are at high risk for new onset of atrial fibrillation.