Impact of cobalt recycling on China's electrification process: Assessing the potential reduction in cobalt demand from battery recycling

Abstract

China is actively promoting the transition from conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) to electric vehicles (EVs) to achieve its goal of carbon peaking and neutrality. However, this shift will result in a continuous increase in demand for lithium-ion batteries for EVs, leading to a significant rise in demand for cobalt, further exacerbating the risk of cobalt resource supply in China. The study considered three electrification levels, three battery technology routes, two battery capacities, two dynamic battery lifetimes, and two recycling efficiencies, resulting in 36 demand scenarios and 72 recycling scenarios while increasing the precision of the study to the inter-provincial level. The results indicate that China's cobalt demand will be huge, peaking around 2039, with annual demand ranging from 78.29 kt to 359.40 kt, and the current production capacity and reserves are completely inadequate to meet the growing cobalt demand. In some specific scenarios, secondary cobalt demand remains higher than or close to primary cobalt demand between 2035 and 2040, and secondary cobalt demand becomes a significant component affecting total cobalt demand. In terms of recycling, closed-loop recycling can cover 45.1%–59.3% of annual cobalt demand in 2039. With rapid recovery efficiency, cobalt recovery in multiple scenarios can already fully meet primary cobalt demand, and the recovery potential is enormous. Furthermore, adopting low-cobalt battery technology, which extends battery life and reduces battery replacement in EVs, can significantly reduce secondary cobalt demand. At the provincial level, cobalt demand and recycling in China are unevenly distributed, with provinces with high demand for cobalt showing a trend of shifting from inland areas in the northwest to central and eastern coastal areas. In contrast, the areas with the largest recycling volume remain in the north. Therefore, accelerating the promotion of low cobalt and long-life battery technology and improving recycling efficiency can greatly alleviate the cobalt supply risk in China's electrification process. Additionally, specific spatial layouts should be given attention to ensure the sound development of China's EV industry through national coordination so that the double carbon target can be accomplished on time or even ahead of schedule.