Abstract
The potential cumulative impact of coal mining and coal seam gas extraction on water resources and water-dependent assets from proposed developments in eastern Australia have been recently assessed through a Bioregional Assessment Programme. This study investigates the sensitivity of the Bioregional Assessment results to climate change and hydroclimate variability, using the Gloucester sub-region as an example. The results indicate that the impact of climate change on streamflow under medium and high future projections can be greater than the impact from coal mining development, particularly where the proposed development is small. The differences in the modelled impact of coal resource development relative to the baseline under different plausible climate futures are relatively small for the Gloucester sub-region but can be significant in regions with large proposed development. The sequencing of hydroclimate time series, particularly when the mine footprint is large, significantly influences the modelled maximum coal resource development impact. The maximum impact on volumetric and high flow variables will be higher if rainfall is high in the period when the mine footprint is largest, and vice-versa for low flow variables. The results suggest that detailed analysis of coal resource development impact should take into account climate change and hydroclimate variability.
Highlights
Australia is a significant producer and exporter of coal, accounting for six percent of the world’s economic resources of black coal and 25 percent of brown coal
The aim of this study is to investigate the sensitivity of the Bioregional Assessment results to climate change and hydroclimate variability, using the Gloucester sub-region as an example
Coal mining will depend on the magnitude of the climate change and the size of the coal mining development
Summary
Australia is a significant producer and exporter of coal, accounting for six percent of the world’s economic resources of black coal and 25 percent of brown coal. There have been a significant number of proposals to further develop coal seam gas and coal resources. The Australian government’s approach to regulating coal mining and coal seam gas extraction is risk-based and deals with uncertainty through adaptive management. This is informed by expert judgement and robust and transparent scientific knowledge and information The influence of hydroclimate variability and climate change were not considered directly in the Bioregional Assessments, the latter partly because of the large uncertainty in the future climate projections (see Section 3).
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