Abstract
Quantitative seasonal Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall forecasting has been a challenge for the climate models as it is sensitive to cloud properties, which are modulated by large-scale dynamics. Proper understanding of the role of dynamics, aerosols, and cloud microphysical processes is important for the precipitation calculation in dynamical models. The all-India averaged seasonal ISM rainfall (ISMR) from June to September had been normal or above normal, however there were large spatial variations. Some meteorological subdivisions, the majority of which lie in the Gangetic Plains, received deficient seasonal rainfall during recent years 2022 and 2010. The quantitative seasonal prediction of the spatial distribution of ISMR from global coupled models (GCMs) has also shown a hard time for accurate spatial rainfall distribution. Four monsoon years (2022, 2021, 2011, and 2010) are considered, in which the country as a whole (all India land points) was ‘above normal’ or ‘normal’. However, in two specific years (2022 and 2010), some subdivisions received deficient rainfall (17% and 15% of the total area). We have used several datasets from the ground, and satellite observations, along with reanalysis products and computed climatology and anomalies for monsoon years of 2022 and 2010. The low-level wind and vertical velocity along with cloud microphysics played a pivotal role in the heterogeneous distribution of ISMR during 2022 and 2010 as compared to years 2021 and 2011. Here, we have demonstrated that the spatial heterogeneity of the positive and negative precipitation anomalies was consistent with cloud properties. Aerosols might have an impact on the cloud microphysical processes and modulate cloud properties and rainfall over different regions due to the availability of water vapor. Therefore, the inclusion of aerosol indirect effects in climate models is crucial for better interactions among dynamics, aerosol, and cloud microphysics. Proper representation of cloud droplet size distribution and microphysical conversion rates might be helpful for quantitative seasonal ISMR forecasting at a smaller spatial scale.
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