Impact of Clinical and Endoscopic Features on the Development of Metachronous Colorectal Advanced Serrated Lesions

Abstract

High-risk adenomas predict metachronous advanced adenomatous neoplasia. Limited data exist on predictors of metachronous advanced serrated lesions (mASLs). We analyzed clinical and endoscopic predictors of mASLs. In this retrospective cohort study, adults with >1 outpatient colonoscopy between 2008 and 2019 at a tertiary center were included. Serrated lesions (SLs) included sessile SLs (SSLs), traditional serrated adenomas (TSAs), and hyperplastic polyps (HPs). Patient and endoscopic characteristics were obtained using electronic medical records. Five-year cumulative incidence of mASL (HP ≥10 mm, SSL ≥10 mm or with dysplasia, any TSA) and factors associated with mASL were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox proportional hazards models. A total of 4990 patients were included and 45.4% were women. Mean age was 60.9 ± 9.2 years and median follow-up time was 3.7 years. Female sex and active smoking were associated with mASL. Endoscopically, any SSL and TSA were associated with mASL. The 5-year cumulative incidence for mASL was 26% (95% confidence interval [CI], 18%-32%) for SSL ≥10 mm, 17% (95% CI, 3.5%-29%) for HP ≥10 mm, 21% (95% CI, 0%-42%) for 3-4 SSLs <10 mm, 18% (95% CI, 0%-38%) for TSA, and 27% (95% CI, 3.6%-45%) for SSL with low-grade dysplasia. Baseline synchronous nonadvanced SL and nonadvanced adenoma were not associated with mASL. Our data support current recommendations for a 3-year surveillance interval in patients with baseline SSL ≥10 mm, SSL with dysplasia, and TSA. A 3-year interval may be more appropriate than 3-5 years for patients with baseline HP ≥10 mm or 3-4 SSLs <10 mm. Patients with synchronous nonadvanced SLs and adenomas do not appear to be at increased risk of mASL.