Impact of climatic fluctuations and land use change on runoff and nutrient losses in rural landscapes

Abstract

Results on the influence of land use and climatic changes on nutrient losses in the Porijõgi river catchment, south Estonia, are presented. The main tendency in land use changes is a significant increase in abandoned lands (from 1.7% in 1987 to 12.5% in 1994), and a decrease in arable lands (from 41.8 to 22.5%). Significant climatic fluctuations were observed from 1951–1994. Warmer winters (increase from −7.9 to −5.8°C from 1950–1994) and a change in the precipitation pattern have influenced the mean annual water discharge. This results in more intensive material flow during colder seasons and decreased water runoff in summer. Changes in water discharge and land use are also reflected in the mean annual runoff of total inorganic nitrogen (TIN) and total-P which decreased from 15.6 to 2.7 kg N ha −1 yr −1 (83%) and 0.32 to 0.21 kg P ha −1 yr −1 (34%), respectively during this period. However, nutrient losses from the forest subcatchment (upper course) did not change significantly. In contrast, the mean annual runoff of water, organic matter (after biological oxygen demand: BOD 5), TIN, total-P and SO 4 from cultivated subcatchments showed a significant decrease.