Impact of Climatic Fluctuation on Dengue Virus Etiology

Abstract

Aedes mosquito-body is the favored habitat for the member of Flaiviridae, the most famous member of the family, formerly known as Dengue virus (DENV). Dengue virus infection induces high fever in human and responsible for associated symptoms like skin rashes. In literature, it has been noted that the onset of dengue fever usually occurs in monsoon and winter seasons, which gradually declines with onset of summer. This season-coordinated trend has suggested positive association towards the climate and proliferation of Dengue virus. To investigate this hypothesis, this study has been proposed. In this study, the date-wise data for Dengue positive cases were obtained from the Government hospitals across Gujarat region. The data were further correlated with the climatic parameters for that date. The investigation suggests the strong correlation between climatic fluctuations. The correlation analysis of obtain data suggests the fluctuations in relative humidity, temperature and pressure during day and night has strong impact. We proposed Poisson regression model and Negative Binomial model for prediction.