Impact of climatic factors on the prediction of hydroelectric power generation: a deep CNN-SVR approach

Abstract

This study, which aims to make predictions using a previously unused deep hybrid Convolutional Neural Network-Support Vector Regression approach for hydropower generation, was carried out using a unique meteorological data set as input data. The unique dataset was collected from Kaman Meteorology Directorate and Hirfanlı HEPP in Turkey, from 2007 to 2021, to estimate the HEPP's Net Head and Hydroelectric Power Generation on a daily basis. The performances of the prediction models were benchmarked in addition to the used CNN-SVR model with Machine Learning (ML) models (Boosting Random Forest Regression (BRFR) and Weighted K-Nearest Neighbor Regression (WKNNR)) and Deep Learning (DL) models (Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) and Deep Belief Network (DBN)). The comparison results of the used CNN-SVR model with other alternative models showed that CNN-SVR performed effectively with the highest correlation coefficient of 0.971 for NH and 0.968 for PP.