Impact of climatic and non-climatic factors on shrimp production: Empirical evidence from Bangladesh

Abstract

Shrimp is the largest aquaculture species in Bangladesh by value, and it is also the largest species in terms of export value. However, due to the impacts of climate change, the sustainability of shrimp production is jeopardized. In this study, we use longitudinal data from 1990 to 2020 to investigate the impact of climatic factors such as annual temperature, precipitation, CO2 emissions, and salinity, as well as non-climatic factors such as gross cultivated areas, availability of credit, labor availability, and the export price of shrimp. A recently developed dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (DARDL) and augmented ARDL model are used for the methodological approach. The results show that temperature, precipitation, and CO2 emissions all have a detrimental effect, whereas soil salinity has a significant favorable influence on shrimp production in the long run. Cultivated lands availability of credit, and the export price of shrimp, on the other hand, all have a favorable and significant impact on shrimp production in both the long and short term.