Impact of climate warming on population mortality in South China

Abstract

Climate warming poses a serious threat to public health, especially in South China. This study analyzes the impact of climate warming on population mortality and adaptive behavior in South China from the perspective of economic heterogeneity. The study constructs a temperature–mortality response model using mortality data from 134 major cities in South China from 1999 to 2019. The two-way fixed effects method is used for empirical estimation. The following are the main findings. (1) High temperature has a significant impact on mortality in South China. Compared with rich cities, high temperature significantly increases mortality in poor cities. (2) Under the RCP8.5 concentration scenario, climate warming will increase population mortality by 19.37% in South China and 34.32% in poor cities over the period 2080–2099. (3) Outmigration by the rural population is an important adaptive behavior to high temperatures. This behavior also shows economic heterogeneity. These findings have several policy implications for mitigating the impact of climate warming on mortality. Policymakers should provide more support to poor areas to improve their ability to adapt to climate change.