Abstract
Year to year change in weather poses serious threats to agriculture globally, especially in developing countries. Global climate models simulate an increase in global temperature between 2.9 to 5.5 °C till 2060, and crop production is highly vulnerable to climate warming trends. Extreme temperature causes a significant reduction in crop yields by negatively regulating the crop phenology. Therefore, to evaluate warming impact on cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) production and management practices, we quantified agrometeorological data of 30 years by applying multiple crop modelling tools to compute the expected rise in temperature, impact of crop phenology, yield loss, provision of agrometeorology-services, agronomic technologies, and adaptation to climate-smart agriculture. Model projections of 15 agrometeorology stations showed that the growing duration of the sowing-boll opening and sowing-harvesting stages was reduced by 2.30 to 5.66 days decade−1 and 4.23 days decade−1, respectively, in Pakistan. Temperature rise in China also advanced the planting dates, sowing emergence, 3–5 leaves, budding anthesis, full-bloom, cleft-boll, boll-opening, and boll-opening filling by 24.4, 26.2, 24.8, 23.3, 22.6, 15.8, 14.6, 5.4, 2.9, and 8.0 days. Furthermore, present findings exhibited that the warming effect of sowing-harvest time was observed 2.16 days premature, and delayed for 8.2, 2.4, and 5.3 days in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s in China. APSIM-cotton quantification revealed that the sowing, emergence, flowering, and maturity stages were negatively correlated with temperature −2.03, −1.93, −1.09, and −0.42 days °C−1 on average, respectively. This study also provided insight into the adaptation of smart and better cotton by improving agrotechnological services.
Highlights
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report (SR) on stay below 1.5 ◦ C mentioned that there is exceptionally high confidence in biological reactions to present climatic change, rising temperature, based on further evidence from a wider series of species [1]
The temporal variations in the climate variables (Pre —precipitation, Sun —sunshine hour, Hum —average air relative humidity, Tmax —maximum temperature, Tmin —minimum temperature, and Tave —average temperature) during the cotton growing seasons at the sites in Xinjiang, China are demonstrated as box plots in Figures 2 and 3 Pre —precipitation, Sun —sunshine hour, Hum —average air relative humidity, Tmax —maximum temperature, Tmin —minimum temperature, and Tave —average temperature fluctuated within ranges of
The variability in cotton growth and phenology indicates the significant impact of climate warming in recent decades
Summary
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report (SR) on stay below 1.5 ◦ C mentioned that there is exceptionally high confidence in biological reactions to present climatic change, rising temperature, based on further evidence from a wider series of species [1]. Crop production is extremely contingent on the regional climate and ecological environment. The variations in the global environment could have critical effects on crop growth, development, phenology, and yields [2,3]. The increases in temperature and shift in the rainfall cycle affect cotton growth development [4]. Wide-reaching climate heating makes cotton vulnerable due to a rise in temperature, prolonged drought stresses, and erratic patterns of rainfall [5,6]. Extreme weather events (EWEs) are causing 50% of yield reductions in agronomic crops globally [7]. [9] reported that the average surface temperature has increased at the rate of 0.25 ◦ C decade−1 over the region’s previous 50 years.
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