Impact of Climate Variability on Flowering Phenology and Its Implications for the Schedule of Blossom Festivals

Lu Wang,Quansheng Ge,Huanjiong Wang,Zhizhong Ning

doi:10.3390/su9071127

Abstract

Many tourism destinations characterized by spring blossom festivals (e.g., cherry blossom festival) became increasingly popular around the world. Usually, spring blossom festivals should be planned within the flowering period of specific ornamental plants. In the context of climate and phenological change, whether the administrators of tourism destinations had perceived and responded to the flowering phenological variability is still unknown. Using the data of climate, blossom festival dates (BFD) of three tourist attractions, and first flowering dates (FFD) of specific species in Beijing, China, we analyzed the flowering phenological response to temperature and the impact of FFDs on BFDs from 1989 to 2016. It was shown that the flowering time of ornamental plants varied significantly among years in response to temperature variability. The administrators of Beijing Botanical Garden and Yuyuantan Park determined peach BFD and cherry BFD based on their experience rather than FFD of corresponding plants. Therefore, the mismatch between BFD and FFD occurred frequently at these two locations. However, the administrator of Jingshan Park scheduled the peony BFD following the variance of FFD of tree peony. These results revealed the various perceptions of climate change impacts for stakeholders of blossom festivals.

Highlights

Due to the natural and anthropogenic substances and processes, the global surface temperature increased by 0.85 ◦C from 1880 to 2012 [1]
We investigated variances in the first flowering dates of three key ornamental plants in Beijing since 1989 and highlighted the role of temperature in modulating flowering phenology
No significant linear trends were found in time series of first flowering dates (FFD)

Summary

Introduction

Due to the natural and anthropogenic substances and processes, the global surface temperature increased by 0.85 ◦C from 1880 to 2012 [1]. As a vital component of the global economy, nature-based tourism relying on a high diversity of tourism resources was affected by climate change in various ways. Warmer temperatures could impact tourism through altering seasonality of destinations, heat stress for tourists, and plant–insect relationship and distribution [3,4,5]. In Rocky Mountain National Park, the United States, the net effect of climate change on visitation was slightly positive based on a visitor survey [6]. Canada’s national parks were anticipating a higher visitation of 6–8% under two climate change scenarios for the 2020s [7]

Methods

Results

Conclusion