Impact of climate model uncertainties on socioeconomics: A case study with a medium mitigation scenario

Abstract

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are strongly associated with economy. The amount of CO2 that human society can emit in order to achieve a climate target depends on physical and biogeochemical properties in the climate system; these vary among climate models or earth system models (ESMs). Thus, uncertainties in such models, the spread remained when we both consider the range of existing models and observational data for key variables, can affect analysis of future global economy. In this study, using a computable general equilibrium model, we analyze the impacts on socioeconomics under a medium climate mitigation scenario by following three emission pathways considering uncertainties in existing ESMs (the lower and upper bounds as well as the mean). The results indicate that the impacts are larger in the lower bound case, despite the fact that economic and energy demands will increase continuously. In a comparison between the upper and lower bound cases, the carbon price of the latter case is approximately three times higher than that of the former case in 2100. Consequently, primary/final energy demand in the lower bound case becomes 1.0%/14% lower, and more renewables and carbon capture and storage are required to be used. Furthermore, the gross domestic product in the lower bound case is 4.1% smaller. Thus, within the scenario, the socioeconomic impacts caused by ESM uncertainties are not insignificant, but are smaller than the differences in annual and cumulative emissions.