Impact of Climate Change on the Stability of the Miacher Slope, Upper Hunza, Gilgit Baltistan, Pakistan

Abstract

Especially in recent years, the study of landslide phenomena is considered as very important because of the effects of climate change. The aim of this paper is to examine the stability of the slope located in Miacher Nagar village along the Hunza River (HR), using the Limit Equilibrium Method (LEM). The Miacher slope rises to a height of 900 m from the foot of the Hunza River and has a base angle of 50 degrees. Meta-sediments and quaternary recent glaciated deposits make up the majority of the slope’s composition. The slope movement of Miacher was first triggered in 1995, and was further triggered in 2010 and 2013. The slope was geologically, geomorphologically, geotechnically and geochemically investigated as well as modeled by Slope/w to determine the safety factor. Soil samples were analyzed for their geotechnical, geological and geomorphological properties. The Limit Equilibrium Method (LEM) was employed in this study to analyze the Factor of Safety (FOS) of the slope, based on assumptions of the Morgenstern and Price, Ordinary, Janbu and Bishop Methods, using the Slope/w software. Various factors, including pore water pressure, unit weight, cohesion, angle of internal friction and overburden, were examined by analyzing different scenarios. The findings showed that an increase in cohesion and angle of internal friction resulted in an increase in FOS, whereas an increase in unit weight and overburden caused a decrease in FOS. The influence of pore water pressure was positive to a certain extent, but a further increase led to a significant reduction in FOS. The results showed that the Miacher slope is currently stable, as all FOS values were greater than one, based on the existing strength parameters and simulated results obtained using Slope/w.