Abstract
Quantification of the impacts of climate change on streamflow and other hydrological parameters is of high importance and remains a challenge in arid areas. This study applied a modified distributed hydrological model (HEC-HMS) to the Yarkant River basin, China to assess hydrological changes under future climate change scenarios. Climate change was assessed based on six CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs), three shared socio-economic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370), and several bias correction methods, whereas hydrological regime changes were assessed over two timeframes, referred to as the near future (2021–2049) and the far future (2071–2099). Results demonstrate that the DM (distribution mapping) and LOCI (local intensity scaling) bias correction methods most closely fit the projections of temperature and precipitation, respectively. The climate projections predicted a rise in temperature of 1.72–1.79 °C under the three SSP scenarios for the near future, and 3.76–6.22 °C under the three SSPs for the far future. Precipitation increased by 10.79–12% in the near future, and by 14.82–29.07% during the far future. It is very likely that streamflow will increase during both the near future (10.62–19.2%) and far future (36.69–70.4%) under all three scenarios. The increase in direct flow will be greater than baseflow. Summer and winter streamflow will increase the most, while the increase in streamflow was projected to reach a maximum during June and July over the near future. Over the far future, runoff reached a peak in May and June. The timing of peak streamflow will change from August to July in comparison to historical records. Both high- and low-flow magnitudes during March, April, and May (MAM) as well as June, July, and August (JJA) will increase by varying degrees, whereas the frequency of low flows will decrease during both MAM and JJA. High flow frequency in JJA was projected to decrease. Overall, our results reveal that the hydrological regime of the Yarkant River is likely to change and will be characterized by larger seasonal uncertainty and more frequent extreme events due to significant warming over the two periods. These changes should be seriously considered during policy development.
Highlights
Introduction distributed under the terms andObserved climate change has altered the global hydrological cycle and is expected to have a considerable impact on multi-scale freshwater availability [1]
Tashkurgan station was selected as the base station, according to previous studies, the maximum and minimum precipitation totals in the basin are at elevations of 5500 m and 4000 m, respectively
The temperature lapse rate utilized the mean monthly temperature lapse rates calculated by Kan, which were derived from Tashkurgan, 11 temperature sensors, and three automatic weather stations (AWSs) [33]
Summary
Introduction distributed under the terms andObserved climate change has altered the global hydrological cycle and is expected to have a considerable impact on multi-scale freshwater availability [1]. Streamflow predictions associated with a changing climate are critically needed, especially in arid areas, for strategic and effective water resources planning and management. The Yarkant River, located in the northwestern arid region of China, is the longest tributary of the Tarim River, which is the largest inland river in China. Basin Irrigation District is the fourth largest agricultural irrigation district in China and provides water resources for a population of 1.3 million [2]. The region is characterized by a typical temperate continental arid climate and is the most important region in Xinjiang in particular, and China in general, for the production of high-quality grain, cotton, and fruits [3,4]. River runoff is a major water resource in arid basins, and often supports the development of agriculture. As an important tributary of the Tarim River, the Yarkant
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