Impact of climate change on the heating and cooling load components of an archetypical residential room in major Indian cities

Abstract

Residential heating and cooling (H/C) accounts for ∼7 % of India's electricity consumption. A warming climate will increase residential cooling requirements while heating needs will decrease — an alarming consequence for India, which has predominantly cooling requirements. Thus, to reduce the Indian building sector's energy and carbon footprint, it is essential to assess the impact of climate change on future H/C needs and develop energy-efficiency solutions.This research evaluated the effect of climate change on the H/C energy needs of an archetypical residential room in India by conducting energy simulations for current and future climates. We developed future weather files for eight major Indian cities, covering all climate zones of the country, using predictions from multiple general circulation climate models under two different representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. We also developed a novel approach to quantify the H/C load components (walls, windows, infiltration, etc.) for identifying building elements to target for improving energy efficiency.The ensemble median of climate model projections showed that the room's cooling energy demand would increase by 20–179 % by the 2090s compared to the 1990s, depending on the room's orientation, city, and emission scenario. Walls and windows account for over 63 % of the current and future cooling needs and should be the prime targets for energy-efficiency measures. In contrast to rising cooling needs, the room's heating energy demand will decrease by 34–100 % by the 2090s. External walls contribute to over 67 % of the heating needs; thus, insulating them could effectively reduce the heating demand.