Abstract
ABSTRACT The cloud forests are threatened due to the climate change process. Investigations seeking to predict how future climate change will affect species are of great importance as they are fundamental to generating conservation strategies. We aimed to detect how climate change affects the potential geographical distribution of Drimys angustifolia Miers, a tree species that is an indicator of the upper-montane cloud forest in the Brazilian subtropical Atlantic Forest. The areas where D. angustifolia occurs were obtained from geographic coordinates available in scientific publications and the Global Biodiversity Information database. For climate niche modeling, we used the maximum entropy algorithm with 19 climate variables. Two climate change scenarios were considered for 2061-2080: one of low and one of high impact. D. angustifolia predominantly occurs in the upper-montane forests and is absent from dry and warm sites. The variables that best explained the D. angustifolia climatic niche were mean temperature of the warmest quarter, precipitation of driest month, and precipitation of the warmest quarter. Both scenarios indicated changes towards a more tropical regional future climate. Under the low impact climate change scenario, D. angustifolia coverage declined by 68.24% (± 7.32%) across its area of potential occurrence; it declined by 79.15% (± 9.65%) under the high impact scenario. In conclusion, the results of the present study showed that D. angustifolia and its associated ecosystem are threatened by the potential impacts of future climate change. Consequently, we highlight climatically stable areas for the occurrence of D. angustifolia, such as those located in the highest parts of the mountain ranges of the southern and southeastern regions of Brazil, which should be considered as priority areas for protection and conservation.
Highlights
According to projections from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global temperatures will rise by up to 4.8°C, on average, by the year 2100 (IPCC, 2014)
We highlight climatically stable areas for the occurrence of D. angustifolia, such as those located in the highest parts of the mountain ranges of the southern and southeastern regions of Brazil, which should be considered as priority areas for protection and conservation
To predict how future climate changes will affect the distribution of D. angustifolia, we considered, for the year 2070, five atmospheric global circulation models (GCMs) (CCSM4, GISS-E2-R, ACCESS1-0, HadGEM2-AO, MIROC5)
Summary
According to projections from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global temperatures will rise by up to 4.8°C, on average, by the year 2100 (IPCC, 2014). Recent studies (Becker-Scarpitta et al, 2019; Boisvert-Marsh et al, 2019) have shown that one of the main responses of species to the global warming process is a shift in their respective naturally occurring distribution, with displacement towards the poles and to areas of higher altitude. This phenomenon occurs because the geographical distribution of a given species is determined by its physiological limits, which are related to temperature tolerance and precipitation (Walther et al, 2002). In the face of a range of potential climate change scenarios, biological composition is expected to change in the upper-montane cloud forests, as a result of the arrival of species from lower altitudes and extinction of endemic species in high elevation areas (Foster, 2001)
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