Impact of climate change on the energy performance of building envelopes and implications on energy regulations across Europe

The predicted rise in global temperature by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC appeals for a review of the methods and materials used for building construction for reduced emissions and comfort in buildings. Buildings account for the most carbon emissions in the globe. This study presents the impact of temperature change across the 36 state capitals in Nigeria, and the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, based on Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs 4.5 for 2020 and 8.5 for 2090. A simple studio apartment with optimised alternatives for retrofits and new builds was simulated using EnergyPlus for both climate scenarios to determine the strategies for improving the energy performance of future buildings. The result of the study shows a significant increase in mean monthly outdoor temperature of about 5⁰c across the states, with potential heat stress affecting buildings in future climates. Moreover, about one-third of the locations experience a shift in climatic zones to hotter ones. The impact of this climate drift will be more severe in the Northcentral and Southwest regions of the country. The design strategies recommended to mitigate the effects of a changing climate focused on building envelope insulation, thermal mass, and solar shading. The performance of the optimised models under future scenarios accounts for up to 25% and 73% savings in cooling energy for retrofits and new builds, respectively. To protect existing buildings from the impact of future climates, developers must make massive investments in solar shading of buildings. In contrast, a combination of envelope insulation and solar shading strategies proves effective for new builds.

Relationship between shape and energy performance of buildings under long-term climate change

Predicting the joint effects of future climate and land use change on ecosystem health in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, China

Climate change impacts on tropical forests and tree species have been documented as changes in distribution, growing period, phenology, habitat, productivity, species composition, and migration. This study attempts to assess the current and future habitat suitability distribution of two dominant species of Central India, teak (Tectona grandis Linn. f.) and sal (Shorea robusta Gaertn. f.) using a maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to predict species occurrences by finding the distribution that has the most spread. The future suitable habitat ranges of the species were modeled for two time periods (2050 and 2070) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6 and 8.5). Representative concentration pathways are scenarios that describe alternative trajectories for carbon dioxide emissions and the resulting atmospheric concentration from 2000 to 2100. We collected and modeled the spatially well-dispersed species occurrence points of teak and sal. The results suggested an increase in suitable habitat range for teak and a decrease for sal for both time periods and RCPs. Furthermore, the jackknife analysis identified temperature and precipitation seasonality as the major variables that influence the distribution of teak. In the case of sal, minimum temperature makes the maximum contribution to distribution changes. The suitable silvicultural strategies for forest management are proposed based on the future distribution of species in relation to the climate variables responsible for the change in their distribution range. These findings and strategies will help forest departments build future management plans for teak and sal forest with a focus on minimizing the impact of climate change. Study Implications: Our study used maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling to understand the impact of changing climate on the distribution of teak and sal forests of central India and to propose future silvicultural strategies. The study used MaxEnt model for two time periods and two climate change scenarios at highest resolution. An increase in future suitable habitat for teak and a decrease for sal is predicted by the model. Temperature for teak and precipitation for sal were identified as the major influencing climatic variables. We recommend forest and other related government departments to commission focused research to understand the changing patterns of species with climate change and design appropriate silviculture strategies for effective management.

The 2021 China report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: seizing the window of opportunity

기후변화와 토지이용변화는 유역의 수문순환의 변화를 초래하여 가용수자원의 변화를 야기 시킨다. 본 연구에서는 안성천 (<TEX>$371.1km^2$</TEX>) 유역을 대상으로 SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool)모형을 이용하여 미래기후변화와 토지이용변화가 유출특성에 미치는 영향을 분석하고자 하였다. 미래 기후자료는 IPCC 제 5차 기후변화 평가보고서에서 생산된 RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway, 대표농도경로)기반의 기후변화 시나리오 중 기상청에서 제공한 RCP 4.5와 8.5 시나리오(한반도 영역; 12.5km)를 이용하였다. 기준 년과 비교한 결과 RCP 8.5의 2080s (2060-2099)에서 평균온도가 <TEX>$4.2^{\circ}C$</TEX> 상승하였으며, 강우량은 최고 21.2% 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 토지이용변화 추세는 CLUE-s (Conservation of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent)모형을 이용하여 예측되었고, 도시 면적 증가에 따른 3가지 시나리오(Linear, Exponential, Logarithmic)를 적용한 안성천 유역의 미래(2040s, 2080s) 토지이용도를 구축하였다. 각각의 시나리오에서 도시면적 비율은 2100년에 9.4%, 20.7%, 35%로 예측되었다. 기후변화만을 고려하였을 때 증발산량과 총 유출량은 RCP 8.5의 2080s에서 최고 20.6%, RCP 4.5의 2080s에서 최고 25.7% 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 토지이용변화만을 고려한 경우 증발산량과 총 유출량은 최고 3.7%, 2.9% 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 토지이용과 기후변화 시나리오를 모두 적용한 경우 증발산량과 총 유출량은 RCP 8.5 2080s의 Linear 토지이용변화 시나리오에서 최고 19.2% 증가하였으며, RCP 4.5 2080s의 Exponential 토지이용변화 시나리오에서 최고 36.1%증가하는 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구를 통해 미래의 유역 수문환경조건 변화에 따른 수자원을 정량적으로 파악할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다. Climate and land use changes have impact on availability water resource by hydrologic cycle change. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the hydrologic behavior by the future potential climate and land use changes in Anseongcheon watershed (<TEX>$371.1km^2$</TEX>) using SWAT model. For climate change scenario, the HadGEM-RA (the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 3-Regional Atmosphere model) RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios from Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) were used. The mean temperature increased up to <TEX>$4.2^{\circ}C$</TEX> and the precipitation showed maximum 21.2% increase for 2080s RCP 8.5 scenario comparing with the baseline (1990-2010). For the land use change scenario, the Conservation of Land Use its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-s) model was applied for 3 scenarios (logarithmic, linear, exponential) according to urban growth. The 2100 urban area of the watershed was predicted by 9.4%, 20.7%, and 35% respectively for each scenario. As the climate change impact, the evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow (ST) showed maximum change of 20.6% in 2080s RCP 8.5 and 25.7% in 2080s RCP 4.5 respectively. As the land use change impact, the ET and ST showed maximum change of 3.7% in 2080s logarithmic and 2.9% in 2080s linear urban growth respectively. By the both climate and land use change impacts, the ET and ST changed 19.2% in 2040s RCP 8.5 and exponential scenarios and 36.1% in 2080s RCP 4.5 and linear scenarios respectively. The results of the research are expected to understand the changing water resources of watershed quantitatively by hydrological environment condition change in the future.

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to quantify the energy heating performance of apartment buildings in Kosovo built after 2003 and compare it against the energy heating performance of buildings in member states of EU and selected European countries.Design/methodology/approachThis paper takes a case study approach focussed on the assessment of the heating energy performance of the building. This approach facilitated a detailed calculation of the selected materials’ energy performance used in a representative building structure in Kosovo comparing with passive buildings standard and energy heating performance of buildings in member states of EU and selected European countries.FindingsResults of quantitative research find that the energy heating performance of apartment buildings in Kosovo built after 2003 is far higher than that of passive buildings standard and is better than the average annual energy heating performance of apartment buildings in member states of the EU and selected European countries.Research limitations/implicationsThe research provides new knowledge regarding energy heating performance in new residential buildings in Kosovo and compares the findings with earlier research and energy consumption in other selected European countries. The research provides great benefits for researchers and practitioners working in the field of energy management as it compares the energy performance of residential buildings across Europe.Originality/valueThis paper provides a perspective on investigating the energy performance of a building structure of a residential apartment building in Prishtina, Kosovo. By unveiling the level of energy consumption of a residential apartment building in Kosovo representative of the new construction period can help the facility managers to acknowledge the standards they must achieve to refurbish the old building stock to achieve at least the same standard as the buildings in the new construction period.

The area of policy formulation for the energy and carbon performance of buildings is coming under increasing focus. A major challenge is to account for the large variation within building stocks relative to factors such as location, climate, age, construction, previous upgrades, appliance usage and type of heating/cooling/lighting system. Existing policy-related tools that rely on simple calculation methods have a limited ability to represent the dynamic interconnectedness of technology options and the impact of possible future changes in climate and occupant behaviour. The use of detailed simulation tools to address these limitations in the context of policy development has hitherto been focused on the modelling of a number of representative designs rather than dealing with the spread inherent in large building stocks. Further, these tools have been research-oriented and largely unsuitable for direct use by policy-makers, practitioners and, ultimately, building owners/occupiers. This chapter summarizes recent initiatives that have applied advanced modelling and simulation in the context of policy formulation for large building stocks. To exemplify the stages of the process, aspects of the ESRU Domestic Energy Model (EDEM) are described. EDEM is a policy support tool built on detailed simulation models aligned with the outcomes of national surveys and future projections for the housing stock. On the basis of pragmatic inputs, the tool is able to determine energy use, carbon emissions and upgrade/running costs for any national building stock or subset. The tool has been used at the behest of the Scottish Building Standards Agency and South Ayrshire Council to determine the impact of housing upgrades, including the deployment of new and renewable energy systems, and to rate the energy/carbon performance of individual dwellings as required by the European Commission's Directive on the Energy Performance of Buildings (EC, 2002).

The effect of geometry factors on fenestration energy performance and energy savings in office buildings

Globally, buildings account for nearly 40% of the total primary energy consumption and are responsible for 20% of the total greenhouse gas emissions. Energy consumption in buildings is increasing with the increasing world population and improving standards of living. Current global warming conditions will inevitably impact building energy consumption. To address this issue, this report conducted a comprehensive study of the impact of climate change on residential building energy consumption. Using the methodology of morphing, the weather files were constructed based on the typical meteorological year (TMY) data and predicted data generated from eight typical global climate models (GCMs) for three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) from 2020 to 2100. It was found that the most severe situation would occur in scenario RCP8.5, where the increase in temperature will reach 4.5 °C in eastern Australia from 2080–2099, which is 1 °C higher than that in other climate zones. With the construction of predicted weather files in 83 climate zones all across Australia, ten climate zones (cities)—ranging from heating-dominated to cooling-dominated regions—were selected as representative climate zones to illustrate the impact of climate change on heating and cooling energy consumption. The quantitative change in the energy requirements for space heating and cooling, along with the star rating, was simulated for two representative detached houses using the AccuRate software. It could be concluded that the RCP scenarios significantly affect the energy loads, which is consistent with changes in the ambient temperature. The heating load decreases for all climate zones, while the cooling load increases. Most regions in Australia will increase their energy consumption due to rising temperatures; however, the energy requirements of Adelaide and Perth would not change significantly, where the space heating and cooling loads are balanced due to decreasing heating and increasing cooling costs in most scenarios. The energy load in bigger houses will change more than that in smaller houses. Furthermore, Brisbane is the most sensitive region in terms of relative space energy changes, and Townsville appears to be the most sensitive area in terms of star rating change in this study. The impact of climate change on space building energy consumption in different climate zones should be considered in future design strategies due to the decades-long lifespans of Australian residential houses.

Impact of climate change on thermal and mixing regimes in a deep dimictic reservoir on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, China

Measuring the impact of regional climate change on heating and cooling demand for the Chilean energy transition

The impact of thermal conductivity change of moist fibrous insulation on energy performance of buildings under hot–humid conditions

Against the backdrop of accelerating global warming, buildings in cold regions are undergoing significant shifts in heating and cooling demands. In order to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on building energy performance under various future scenarios, this study draws on climate projections provided by CMIP6. Focusing on typical residential buildings in Harbin, we employ advanced interpretable machine learning techniques, including XGBoost and SHAP, to systematically examine the relative contributions of multiple climatic factors—such as temperature, humidity, and snowfall—to cooling and heating requirements. The results indicate that increasing temperatures and the rising frequency of extreme weather events will substantially affect the balance between heating and cooling loads; meanwhile, factors such as humidity and snowfall also exhibit nonlinear effects on energy consumption under different climate contexts. By quantitatively analyzing the key drivers of shifts in building performance, this study offers cutting-edge technical support for optimizing building energy use and shaping pertinent policies in cold regions. It likewise provides a robust scientific foundation for urban planning and sustainable building design. The proposed methodological framework demonstrates strong scalability, rendering it applicable to building energy research in other climatic zones. Consequently, the findings present significant implications for advancing urban climate adaptation strategies and informing evidence-based decision-making in the future.

The integration of hydrology and climate is important for understanding the present and future impact of climate on streamflow, which may cause frequent flooding, droughts, and shortage of water supply. In view of this, we assessed the impact of climate change on daily streamflow duration curves as well as extreme peak and low flow values. The objectives were to assess how climate change impacts watershed-wide streamflow and its extreme values and to provide an overview of the impacts of different climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5) on streamflow and hydrological extremes when compared with the baseline values. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for daily streamflow and its extreme value modeling of two watersheds located on the Island of Oahu (Hawaii). Following successful calibration and validation of SWAT at three USGS flow gauging stations, we simulated the impact of climate change by the 2050s (2041–2070) and the 2080s (2071–2100). We used climate change perturbation factors and applied the factors to the historical time series data of 1980–2014. SWAT adequately reproduced observed daily streamflow with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values of greater than 0.5 and bracketed &gt;80% of observed streamflow data at 95% model prediction uncertainty at all flow gauging stations, indicating the applicability of the model for future daily streamflow prediction. We found that while the considered climate change scenarios generally show considerable negative impacts on daily streamflow and its extreme values, the extreme peak flows are expected to increase by as much as 22% especially under the RCP 8.5 scenario. However, a consistent decrease in extreme low flows by as much as 60% compared to the baseline values is projected. Larger negative changes of low flows are expected in the upstream part of the watersheds where higher groundwater contributions are expected. Consequently, severe problems, such as frequent hydrological droughts (groundwater scarcity), reduction in agricultural crop productivity, and increase in drinking water demand, are significantly expected on Oahu. Furthermore, the extreme values are more sensitive to rainfall change in comparison to temperature and solar radiation changes. Overall, findings generally indicated that climate change impacts will be amplified by the end of this century and may cause earlier occurrence of hydrological droughts when compared to the current hydrological regime, suggesting water resources managers, ecosystem conservationists, and ecologists to implement mitigation measures to climate change in Hawaii and similar Islands.