Impact of climate change on the distribution of Bombax costatum Pellegr. & Vuillet in Mali, West Africa

Abstract

Bombax costatum is one of the multipurpose indigenous species in Mali, found in the Sudanian and Sudano-Guinean climatic zones with an important socioeconomic contribution. This study assessed the potential impact of climate change on the geographic distribution of B. costatum in Mali, using the 19 bioclimatic variables downloaded from Worldclim at a 2.5 arc-minute resolution and 2013 occurrence points across west-Africa gathered from GBIF and fieldwork. The future niche of species was predicted using three climate models (CanESM5, CNRM-CM6, MIROC6) and four climatic scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP126; SSP245; SSP370 and SSP585) at two time periods (2021–2040 and 2041–2060). The study shows that the current suitable habitats for B. costatum species represent 10.780% of Mali territory. According to the climatic scenarios, the species distribution range especially its highly suitable areas will increase by 2040 and 2060. Moreover, the species could be found in some parts of the Sudano-Sahelian zone in the future. Therefore, sustainable management measures are necessary for B. costatum and should be integrated in reforestation policies to ensure its availability for its multiple uses in the coming years in Mali.