Impact of Climate Change on the Bioclimatological Conditions Evolution of Peninsular and Balearic Spain During the 1953–2022 Period

Abstract

Climate change is altering the temperature and precipitation patterns in the Iberian Peninsula and on the Balearic Islands, with potential impacts on the distribution of plant communities. This study analyses the evolution of bioclimatic units in this region during the 1953–2022 period. Data from 3668 weather stations distributed throughout the study area were analysed. Two 35-year periods (1953–1987 and 1988–2022) were compared to assess changes in macrobioclimates and bioclimates. The results showed expansion of the Mediterranean macrobioclimate, whose total area increased by 6.93%, mainly at the expense of the Temperate macrobioclimate. For bioclimates, a trend towards more xeric and continental conditions was observed in the Mediterranean region, while temperate areas moved towards homogenisation of climate conditions. Likewise, two new bioclimates were detected, which indicate the emergence of new climate conditions. These results suggest a reorganisation of bioclimatic conditions, with particular implications for biodiversity in mountainous and transitional areas, where endemic species face higher risks of habitat loss. This study provides useful information for developing targeted conservation strategies, establishing a baseline for monitoring future changes and developing early warning systems for vulnerable ecosystems, thus supporting the design of climate-adapted conservation measures in the region studied.