Abstract
Changes in climate will affect conditions for species growth and distribution, particularly along elevation gradients, where environmental conditions change abruptly. Agroforestry tree (AGT) species on the densely inhabited slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro and Taita Hills will change their elevation distribution, and associated carbon storage. This study assesses the potential impacts of climate change by modelling species distribution using maximum entropy. We focus on important agroforestry tree species (Albiziagummifera, Mangiferaindica and Perseaamericana) and projected climate variables under IPCC-AR5 RCP 4.5 and 8.5 for the mid-century (2055) and late century (2085). Results show differential response: downward migration for M. indica on the slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro is contrasted with Avocado that will shift upslope on the Taita Hills under RCP 8.5. Perseaamericana will lose suitable habitat on Kilimanjaro whereas M. indica will expand habitat suitability. Potential increase in suitable areas for agroforestry species in Taita Hills will occur except for Albizia and Mango which will potentially decrease in suitable areas under RCP 4.5 for period 2055. Shift in minimum elevation range will affect species suitable areas ultimately influencing AGC on the slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro and Taita Hills. The AGC for agroforestry species will decrease on the slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro but AGC for Mango will increase under RCP 8.5 for period 2055 and 2085. In Taita Hills, AGC will remain relatively stable for A. gummifera and P. americana under RCP 8.5 for period 2055 and 2085 but decrease in AGC will occur for M. indica under projected climate change. Climate change will affect AGT species and the amount of carbon stored differently between the sites. Such insight can inform AGT species choice, and conservation and support development by improving carbon sequestration on sites and reliable food production.
Highlights
Atmospheric accumulation of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, in particular a doubling of CO2, is linked to the rise in global temperature estimated at an average of 1.5 ̊C [1]
We focus on important agroforestry tree species (Albiziagummifera, Mangiferaindica and Perseaamericana) and projected climate variables under IPCC-AR5 RCP 4.5 and 8.5 for the mid-century (2055) and late century (2085)
Variations in gain and loss of particular climate variable at local scale will induce a unique difference in the response of agroforestry tree species
Summary
Atmospheric accumulation of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, in particular a doubling of CO2, is linked to the rise in global temperature estimated at an average of 1.5 ̊C [1]. Increase in global temperature has caused shifting of species distribution, population structure and abundance towards the pole [2]. Species on montane ecosystems with steep climate gradient are at risk from global warming due to potential upward shift of species ranges and habitat fragmentation [2]. Climate change is envisaged to change potential species distribution area and survival in the 21st century; though at present, land use by human population remains the main driver of species extinction and habitat loss [3]. Climatic conditions have changed in the recent years in East Africa due to natural climate variability and land use change [4]. Climate change projections indicate annual temperatures will increase by 1.8 ̊C to 4.3 ̊C by 2080 in East Africa with greatest warming occurring from June to August [7]. Subsistence farming is most vulnerable to climate change due to lack of sufficient resources to adapt to climate change [9]
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