Impact of climate change on Southeast Asian natural habitats, with focus on protected areas

Abstract

Natural habitats have been destroyed by anthropogenic factors for several decades, exacerbated by climate change. This study investigated the impact of climate change on natural habitats by using 55 Phasianidae species. We predicted current and future species distribution based on three climate change scenarios. We then (1) determined the effect of climate change on each species by comparing the distribution and elevation range shift between current and future predictions. In addition, we (2) estimated the total large habitat patches (> 40 km 2 ) for each species, and determine how it change in the future. We also (3) investigated large habitat patches change within PAs. Moreover, we (4) evaluated the Phasianidae diversity hotspots in the current and future predictions. The results showed climate change is likely to reduce the suitable natural habitats in Southeast Asia, with an average reduction of habitat patches was 180,970 km 2 (11%) when comparing the future predictions with the current state. Most of the species appeared to be retreating to higher altitudes and face suitable habitat reduction by 2100. The large habitat patch average declined 183,474 km 2 (12%), with 2–10 species in imminent danger of losing their habitat (depending on the climate change modeling scenarios). The current large patches in the protected areas represented a small proportion of the total large patch distribution, and there were fewer future large patches than currently available. The species risk a reduction in diversity, especially in the Indo-Burma region where most of them are facing a massive loss of their suitable habitats. We suggest the use of Phasianidae as indicator species to monitor natural forests in Southeast Asia and the implementation of adaptive conservation management to prevent further losses in the future.