Abstract
Future climate change projections for India indicate distinct rise in temperature and increased variability in rainfall. This study aims to assess the impact of climate change on sorghum productivity in India in future climatic periods (2025, 2050 and 2075) using DSSAT-sorghum and suggest adaptation strategies to negate the negative impact of climate change on sorghum productivity in the future climates. Three CMIP-5 climate models (GFDL-ESM2M, MIROC5 and NorESM1-M) generated weather data for three future periods were used at various locations for kharif (Akola, Dharwad, Surat and Udaipur) and rabi (Bijapur, Dharwad, Rahuri and Solapur) seasons to simulate sorghum yields. Projected changes in day-night temperatures and rainfall during kharif and rabi growing seasons at these locations are diverse both in direction and magnitude. Increasing trend in rainfall is observed during both crop seasons towards the end of 21st century. Sorghum crop is likely to experience warmer temperature in the second half of the century and rise in minimum temperature is more explicit than maximum temperature at all the locations. Location specific management options can be adopted to mitigate the negative impacts of the change in climate in future projected scenarios, as they are found beneficial.
Highlights
Sorghum is one of the major cereal crop grown mostly under rainfed condition and it continued to be main staple food for marginal farmers of developing countries in Asia and Africa (Murthy et al, 2007)
The CERES-Sorghum model was calibrated for different sorghum cultivars (CSH-9, CHS 16) for kharif and (M-35-1) for rabi seasons based on data from field experiments carried out at respective experimental locations
Cultivar specific genotypic coefficients were estimated by the GENCALC software embedded in Decision Support for AgrotechnologyTransfer (DSSAT) v4.6 and the calibrated genetic coefficients of various sorghum cultivars at respective sites are presented in Table 3.The CERESSorghum model satisfactorilysimulated the phenology and grain yield of sorghum cultivars in close match with observed values at different locations for both kharif and rabi seasons (Table 4)
Summary
Sorghum is one of the major cereal crop grown mostly under rainfed condition and it continued to be main staple food for marginal farmers of developing countries in Asia and Africa (Murthy et al, 2007). Climate change impact studies involving rabi sorghum projected a decline in yield up to 7 per cent by 2020, up to 11 per cent by 2050 and up to 32 per cent by 2080 (Srivastava et al, 2010) over the base period 19781999. Pramod et al (2017) used various adaptation strategies viz change in sowing dates, applying additional irrigation and fertilizer to minimize the yield reduction in wheat in India. Decline in sorghum productivity in future climate change scenarios at different locations of India was primarily attributed to reduction in crop growth period with increase in temperature (Boomiraj et al, 2012). In this background an attempts has been made to study the impact of climate change on sorghum yield and to quantity the benefits of adaptation strategies like changing sowing time, irrigation scheduling on the productivity of sorghum for kharif and Impact of climate change on sorghum productivity in India
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