Abstract
Sea level rise and ocean surge are the major potential impacts of climate change in the rapidly growing urban Lagos in Nigeria. Coastal inundation is, however, expected to increase problems of flooding and intrusion of sea water into freshwater sources and ecosystems, thereby heightening the social conflict already prevalent in this area. This article examines the historical trend in the coastal extent of one of the most populous coastal cities in the tropics and projects the potential impact on coastline change using geographic information system (GIS) techniques coupled with scenario-based climate change predictions from three different general circulation models (GCMs). This study aims, therefore, to provide empirical reasoning for the development of sea defence policies which would help in the reduction of possible loss of life or capital asset damage by suggesting adequate and cost-effective flood warning systems as well as by discouraging inappropriate infrastructural development in areas at risk from flooding and coastal erosion.
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