Abstract
Climate change will have adverse effects on global food production. Potential reduction in crop productivity will be one of the biggest challenges. The objective of this study was to assess the yield fluctuation using Agriculture Production Systems Simulator (APSIM), based on climate change predictions given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2014. Rice (Oryza sativa L.) yields were simulated with increasing temperature, CO2 concentration and rainfall for three time periods; 2017 (current), 2050 and 2100. The simulations were run for medium (Bg359) and short (Bg300) duration rice varieties for 9 locations representing Wet Zone, Intermediate Zone and Dry Zone and for both Yala (March to September) and Maha (October to February) seasons. Simulation results revealed that the Wet Zone rice yield of Bg300 decreased in Maha season by 18% and 31% and the Dry Zone rice yield of Bg359 decreased in Yala season by 17%, and 42% for 2050 and 2100, respectively. Therefore, adaptation measures to overcome climate change-induced rice yield reduction in the future are essential to ensure the national food security.
Highlights
Climate change is considered as the biggest environmental problem of the 21st century, and research has increasingly focused on estimating the impacts that may occur under changing climate
Study area: Ambalantota, Aralaganwila and Maha-Illuppallama located in the Dry Zone (DZ), Batalagoda and Kundasale located in the Intermediate Zone (IZ), and Labuduwa and Ratnapura located in the Wet Zone (WZ) of Sri Lanka (Table1) were selected as the study sites
In the DZ, the average simulated rice yield of Bg300 for the Maha season was projected to increase by 4% in 2050 and by 15% in 2100 (Fig. 1) compared to the current (2017) value of 6.1 tons ha-1
Summary
Climate change is considered as the biggest environmental problem of the 21st century, and research has increasingly focused on estimating the impacts that may occur under changing climate. A number of crop models is available in the literature (DSSAT, CropSyst, APSIM) to study the impacts of climate change, and these models estimate crop growth, yield, water balance, and nutrient balance on a daily basis. Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) was used to simulate the rice yield as affected by the changes in climate. This model was used in different countries (i.e. China, Australia, Canada) to evaluate the impact of climate change for different crops (rice, maize, wheat, sugarcane, cotton; Yang et al, 2015; Yang et al, 2014; Kouadio et al, 2015; Marin et al, 2015)
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