Abstract

Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution Patterns of Alpine Vegetation in the Hengduan Mountains Region, China

Highlights

  • The average global air temperature increased by 0.858C during the last century

  • The cumulative contribution rate of these 4 environmental variables was 88.57%, indicating that they play a decisive role in the potential distribution of alpine vegetation in the Hengduan Mountains

  • Tmin was a potent factor among the 7 climate variables, indicating that colder temperatures over the year play a decisive role in the broad distribution of alpine vegetation in the Hengduan Mountains

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Summary

Introduction

The average global air temperature increased by 0.858C during the last century. Warming has significantly accelerated since the 1990s and is predicted to rise by 1.0– 3.78C in the 21st century, with the temperature increase reaching 28C between 2026 and 2060 (IPCC 2013). Its strong influence on the distribution of species, is an important topic in the field of biogeography (Zhu et al 2018). The Hengduan Mountains are a globally acknowledged biodiversity hotspot with a high level of endemic species (Xu et al 2014). The region is vulnerable to climate change (Li et al 2010). Some studies show that species in mountain areas will shift upward in a warming climate (Zhao and Wu 2014), and some indicate that range size of montane species could increase (Elsen and Tingley 2015). The form of ecological response driven by environmental change has not been systematically addressed in this region

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