Impact of Climate Change on Land Use, Yield and Production of Cassava in Thailand

Siwabhorn Pipitpukdee,Somskaow Bejranonda,Witsanu Attavanich

doi:10.3390/agriculture10090402

Abstract

This article examined the effect of climate change on land use, yield, and production of cassava in Thailand, employing the panel data analysis between 1989 and 2016. The spatial regression and the instrumental variable method with the generalized method of moment were employed to address the endogeneity problems with the unique climate dataset. The current article investigated that total rainfall and the La Niña event determined harvested area of cassava. In addition, the harvested area was decreased as the population density increased due to high demand for non-agricultural use. On the other hand, increased access to irrigation systems enhanced the harvested area of cassava. Considering the yield of cassava, we found an inverted U-shape relationship between yield and temperature. Moreover, this study revealed that climate variability, extreme events and technological progress statistically influenced cassava yields. By using the climate projections during 2046–2055, we found that harvested area and yield of cassava were projected to reduce 12.49–16.05% and 2.57–6.22% from the baseline. As a result, cassava production in Thailand was predicted to decline 14.74–21.26% from the baseline. The well-being of a half-million farmers in Thailand plus actors in the global supply chain of cassava will be vulnerable to climate change.

Highlights

Cassava is an important staple food for over 800 million people globally [1], providing a basic diet for people in several countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa with the highest supplier of carbohydrates among staple crops [2]
Considering extreme events, we revealed that the cassava yield during the El Niño phase was lower than the yield during the neutral phase, while the cassava yield during the La Niña phase was greater than the yield during the neutral phase
Our study investigates that cassava yield is adversely affected by increases in percent of irrigated area to total land area, since the cassava root stays underground and the irrigated area generally locates in the lowland area, which is risky to flood that can damage cassava yield

Summary

Introduction

Cassava is an important staple food for over 800 million people globally [1], providing a basic diet for people in several countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa with the highest supplier of carbohydrates among staple crops [2]. It is an important energy crop for bioethanol production in several countries [3] and can grow mostly in the hotter low land tropics and depleted soils [4]. There are approximately 0.46 million farm households growing cassava, with a million hectares of harvested area, ranked fourth among crops in the country in terms of cropland use [7]

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Conclusion